Demand modeling and scenario planning for a novel, mass-market agent for hypercholesterolemia

Client Problems

• A small but highly-valued biopharma client sought to quantify the opportunity for a new hypercholesterolemia product across 6 patient segments and 3 physician specialties

• More specifically, they wanted to know which product attributes will drive share uptake vs. the market-leading statins and the classes in late-stage development (PCSK9i and CETPi)

What We Did

• Given the landscape, a methodology was needed to process a large amount of feedback efficiently

• We conducted a quantitative conjoint study with n=300 physicians across 3 specialties; as well as 20 qualitative payer interviews

• Using this primary data, we created an annual revenue forecast capable of flexible scenario planning

Our Results And Insight

• Understand baseline patient segmentation

• The benefit of LDL lowering was shown to vary by drug class (statins vs. non-statins) – a critical, new insight

• Respondents were segmented by unmet needs in the cholesterol market (e.g. LDL-C, risk reduction and compatibility with statins)

• Drivers analysis for differences between upside and downside revealed insights for commercial resource allocation