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Detailed global sales forecast and NPV model in Ulcerative Colitis and Crohn’s Disease

Service Areas
Therapeutic Areas

Auto-immune

Client Type

Pre-clinical client

Client Problems

  • A privately-held, development stage pharmaceutical company wanted to understand the market and NPV potential of its two lead assets in Ulcerative Colitis and Crohn’s Disease to support conversations with potential investors


  • The Company’s TPPs and evolving standard of care required a more complex approach to patient segmentation to allow different uptake assumptions across patient profiles

What We Did

  • Created a detailed bottoms-up forecast and adjusted NPV model based on indication specific epidemiology and current SOC utilizing industry standard assumptions for timing and cost


  • Captured additional complexity by modeling a multiple shots on goal approach of having two molecules with different, uncorrelated MOAs going after two indications

Our Results And Insight

  • Key model inputs drive a fully dynamic model
  • Value unwind shows impact of PTS at each stage of development
  • Exit analysis explores return profile for investors across company lifecycle
  • Sensitivity analysis explores impact of changes in key model inputs

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Service Areas Details

Commercial Strategy (Valuation)

Therapeutic Areas Details

Auto-immune (UC and Crohn's)

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