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Detailed global sales forecast and NPV model in Ulcerative Colitis and Crohn’s Disease
Client Problems
- A privately-held, development stage pharmaceutical company wanted to understand the market and NPV potential of its two lead assets in Ulcerative Colitis and Crohn’s Disease to support conversations with potential investors
- The Company’s TPPs and evolving standard of care required a more complex approach to patient segmentation to allow different uptake assumptions across patient profiles
What We Did
- Created a detailed bottoms-up forecast and adjusted NPV model based on indication specific epidemiology and current SOC utilizing industry standard assumptions for timing and cost
- Captured additional complexity by modeling a multiple shots on goal approach of having two molecules with different, uncorrelated MOAs going after two indications
Our Results And Insight
- Key model inputs drive a fully dynamic model
- Value unwind shows impact of PTS at each stage of development
- Exit analysis explores return profile for investors across company lifecycle
- Sensitivity analysis explores impact of changes in key model inputs
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Service Areas Details
Commercial Strategy (Valuation)
Therapeutic Areas Details
Auto-immune (UC and Crohn's)
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